Jeera prices concluded with a slight increase of 0.36% at Rs 19,720, bolstered by apprehensions regarding crop quality and diminished production forecasts in significant producing areas. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have adversely affected standing crops at the harvesting stage, heightening concerns regarding the diminished availability of premium “A-grade” cumin. Unseasonal rains across North-West India have also delayed drying and processing activities, resulting in a temporary supply tightness in the physical market. Furthermore, the diminished availability of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stocks relative to the previous year has sustained a favourable sentiment towards premium pricing.

However, gains remained constrained as new crop arrivals from Rajasthan surged significantly, alleviating previous concerns regarding acute supply shortages. Favourable harvesting conditions allowed farmers to expedite crop harvesting beyond expectations, leading to a robust supply inflow rather than staggered arrivals. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate funds for the forthcoming Kharif sowing season, thereby contributing to immediate selling pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilised at approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in temporary oversupply conditions in spot markets.

Fundamentally, the overall production outlook continues to be diminished compared to the previous season. Industry estimates indicate that national jeera production may fall to approximately 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year, attributed to diminished acreage and lower yields. Gujarat’s production is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is projected to be in the range of 48 to 50 lakh bags. Blight disease outbreaks in Gujarat have further impacted crop quality and output. Anticipations of heightened Chinese demand for inventory replenishment persist in offering fundamental support to prices.

Export data indicated that jeera exports during the period of April to February 2026 experienced a decline of 15%, totalling 166,536 tonnes in comparison to the previous year. However, exports in February saw an increase of 39% relative to January levels. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 1.23% decline in open interest to 10,821 lots, alongside a rise in prices. Support is identified at Rs 19,640, with subsequent support at Rs 19,560. Resistance is established at Rs 19,810 and extends to Rs 19,900 levels.