Turmeric prices exhibited relative stability, concluding with a slight increase of 0.01% at Rs 15,458, as diminished arrivals in principal producing markets sustained positive sentiment. Major mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana have reported restricted arrivals despite the peak marketing season, resulting in a near-term supply tightness. Quality concerns associated with moisture damage and rhizome rot have further diminished the supply of premium export-grade turmeric, especially the highly coveted “Double Polished” varieties. In prominent trading hubs like Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists persist in withholding quality stocks, expecting price increases. Meanwhile, premium Salem Fali varieties are attracting significant premiums in the physical market.

However, gains remained constrained due to the rising influx of late-harvested turmeric and profit-taking by traders who had previously accumulated stocks at lower price points earlier in the season. Farmers in Telangana and Maharashtra have intensified stock liquidation to raise capital for the forthcoming Kharif sowing season, leading to a short-term supply strain in local mandis. Additional pressure has arisen due to the influx of high-moisture produce, which is being sold at reduced prices. Export sentiment exhibited a mixed outlook, as logistical challenges associated with ongoing tensions in the Middle East led some international buyers to defer their purchases.

Fundamentally, the overall supply outlook continues to be favourable. Carry-forward stocks are projected to be approximately 15 lakh bags, a notable decrease from the previous year’s figure of over 20 lakh bags. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers remains robust, bolstered by active procurement from Bangladesh, which has positively influenced market sentiment. The Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of turmeric production estimates to 1.14 million tonnes has further solidified long-term bullish expectations.

Concerns regarding a potentially below-normal monsoon and rising temperatures affecting stored stocks have also contributed to underlying support. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 4.54% decline in open interest to 17,330 contracts, coinciding with a slight increase in prices. Turmeric exhibits immediate support at Rs 15,246, with additional support identified at Rs 15,036. Resistance is identified at Rs 15,590, and a breach of this threshold may lead to further advancements toward Rs 15,724.