Turmeric prices increased by 0.57% to close at Rs 22,680, bolstered by constrained spot supplies and persistent worries regarding the effects of El Niño on the current sowing season. The market exhibited resilience as diminished carry-forward stocks and inadequate rainfall during the initial crop development phase heightened concerns regarding possible yield reductions. Market participants observed that available inventories have diminished considerably in recent years, leading to a hand-to-mouth supply scenario that persists in supporting prices.

However, the recent improvement in rainfall across major producing regions over the past week has alleviated some immediate concerns, thereby constraining further upside as traders evaluate the potential for enhanced crop development. Fundamental indicators suggest a balanced outlook. Turmeric acreage is projected to rise by 16.05% year-on-year in 2026, significantly exceeding the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, bolstered by favourable prices that incentivise increased sowing. The rate of planting will be significantly influenced by the reliability of monsoon precipitation, especially in the context of potential weather pattern alterations due to El Niño later in the season.

Industry estimates indicate that carry-forward stocks have decreased to approximately 15 lakh bags, down from over 20 lakh bags in the previous season. This trend highlights a tighter overall availability, even as stockist activity remains consistent. Export demand continues to show resilience, as evidenced by India’s turmeric exports, which saw a slight decline of only 1% year-on-year in May, totalling 18,960 tonnes. Meanwhile, cumulative shipments for April and May have remained largely stable. Robust export growth to China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy mitigated weaknesses in other markets, indicating a solid international demand. Meanwhile, spot prices in Nizamabad experienced a slight decline of 0.12%.

Technically, turmeric continues to attract fresh buying interest, as evidenced by a 0.53% increase in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 22,326, succeeded by Rs 21,972, whereas resistance is identified at Rs 22,962. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 23,244, maintaining a positive near-term outlook.