Jeera prices increased by 0.34% to close at Rs 19,185, bolstered by a reduction in the availability of premium-quality seeds and a resurgence in buying interest from international markets. Demand from European and North American buyers has shown improvement, especially for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Concurrently, domestic industrial processors have begun to rebuild inventories at prevailing price levels. Concerns regarding quality losses stemming from recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have bolstered sentiment, as unfavourable weather has impacted standing crops during the harvest period and heightened worries about diminished availability of A-grade produce.

Additional support was observed from reports indicating that unseasonal rains in North-West India have delayed drying and processing activities, which has temporarily restricted the flow of quality supplies into the market. Although carry-forward stocks remain available, the proportion of premium Sortex-grade material is reportedly lower than last year, which helps sustain strength in high-quality segments. However, gains remained constrained due to increasing inflows from significant producing areas. Improved weather conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting more quickly than anticipated, resulting in a surge of fresh arrivals instead of a gradual supply flow. Farmers are also actively liquidating stocks to meet liquidity requirements ahead of the Kharif sowing season, adding selling pressure.

Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have settled at approximately 28,500 bags, ensuring sufficient supply in the near term. Fundamentally, production estimates continue to lag behind those of the previous year. National cumin production is anticipated to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decrease from the 1.10 crore bags recorded in the previous season. This decline is attributed to reduced acreage and yield losses, especially in Gujarat. Global production estimates from China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan continue to be relatively modest, reinforcing the overall supply outlook. Export data exhibited a mixed performance, as March shipments experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.54%.

However, there was a notable improvement of 17.64% in exports compared to February, suggesting a gradual recovery in overseas demand. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 10.4% decline in open interest to 6,435 lots, coinciding with an upward movement in prices. Immediate support is observed at Rs 19,100, with subsequent support at Rs 19,020. Resistance is positioned at Rs 19,270, and a sustained movement above this threshold could lead to further gains towards Rs 19,360.