Turmeric prices increased by 1.13%, concluding at Rs 15,632, bolstered by below-average arrivals in major producing regions of Maharashtra and Telangana. Tight availability of quality produce has generated immediate supply concerns, especially regarding export-grade material. Moisture-related issues, including rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas, have diminished the supply of premium “Double Polished” turmeric, whereas high-grade “Salem Fali” varieties persist in commanding significant premiums in major trading centers. Market sentiment exhibited resilience as farmers and stockists in prominent markets like Sangli and Nizamabad persisted in withholding stocks, driven by expectations of elevated prices.

Industry estimates suggest that carry-forward stocks have decreased to approximately 15 lakh bags, down from over 20 lakh bags a year prior, thereby considerably constricting the availability buffer. Additional support stemmed from a rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric among European buyers, alongside consistent procurement enquiries from Bangladesh, especially for finger-variety turmeric sourced from Andhra Pradesh. However, gains were constrained by an increase in the arrivals of late-harvested turmeric. Farmers have expedited stock liquidation to raise capital for the forthcoming Kharif sowing season, leading to a transient supply strain in local mandis.

Increased arrivals of high-moisture produce have also resulted in discounts on average-quality lots. Export performance exhibited a mixed trend, as March shipments experienced a year-on-year decline of 16.8%, totalling 12,559.72 tonnes. However, there was a 10.14% improvement in exports compared to February, suggesting a gradual recovery in overseas demand. Fundamentally, the market continues to receive support from the Union Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of turmeric production estimates to 1.140 million tonnes.

Concerns regarding a potentially subpar monsoon and increasing temperatures in South India are contributing to a prolonged weather risk premium. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 9.46% decline in open interest to 15,690 lots, coinciding with an upward movement in prices. Immediate support is identified at Rs 15,472, with subsequent support at Rs 15,312. Resistance is positioned at Rs 15,726, and a sustained movement above this threshold may lead to further gains towards Rs 15,820.