Jeera prices experienced a slight decline of 0.16%, concluding at Rs 19,155, as the influx of the new crop from major producing areas in Rajasthan alleviated previous worries regarding supply constraints. Favourable weather conditions across North-West India facilitated a more rapid completion of harvesting activities by farmers than initially expected, leading to a significant rise in market arrivals. Farmers have expedited stock liquidation to enhance liquidity ahead of the forthcoming Kharif sowing season, thereby sustaining consistent selling pressure.
Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have reached a steady state of approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in a transient supply surplus that is exerting downward pressure on market sentiment. Despite the decline, the downside remained constrained due to the tightening availability of premium-quality produce. Demand for residue-compliant and high-specification jeera from European and North American buyers has strengthened, bolstering prices of superior grades. Industrial processors have begun to restock inventories at prevailing price levels. Concerns regarding crop quality persistently offer foundational support, as recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have impacted standing crops during the harvest season.
Furthermore, unseasonal rainfall has postponed drying and processing activities, leading to apprehensions regarding the supply of high-grade Sortex-quality cumin. Fundamentally, production prospects are diminished relative to the previous year. Industry estimates suggest that total domestic production may decrease to approximately 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags in the prior season. This decline is largely attributed to diminished acreage and reduced yields in Gujarat. Crop quality has been impacted by blight disease in significant agricultural areas. Global supply prospects continue to be favourable, as reduced production estimates are reported from China and other significant producing nations. Export performance exhibited a varied landscape.
In March, exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.54%, totalling 14,642.73 tonnes. However, there was a notable improvement of 17.64% compared to February levels, suggesting a rebound in export demand. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 10.82% decline in open interest to 5,739 lots, coinciding with a decrease in prices. Immediate support is observed at Rs 19,090, with subsequent support at Rs 19,010. Resistance is positioned at Rs 19,260, and a breach of this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 19,350.