Jeera settled lower by 1.01% at Rs 21,085, influenced by substantial selling from farmers seeking to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing. Favourable weather conditions in Northwest India facilitated a more rapid harvesting and drying process, thereby expediting both arrivals and deliveries. Increasing NCDEX warehouse stocks have diminished the urgency for procurement, as major industrial spice grinders exercise caution and refrain from making bulk purchases. In Unjha, spot prices experienced a decline of 0.48%, settling at Rs 20,730.15. Despite the weak undertone, the downside remained constrained by the tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds.

Arrivals in Unjha and Rajasthan have begun to decline, while the blight disease in critical areas of Gujarat has impacted both the quality and quantity of crops. Production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags this season, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Specifically, Gujarat’s production is anticipated to be in the range of 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is expected to fall between 48 and 50 lakh bags. Global competition continues to play a significant role, with production estimates indicating 70,000-80,000 tonnes in China, 9,000-10,000 tonnes in Syria, 10,000-11,000 tonnes in Turkey, and 10,000-12,000 tonnes in Afghanistan.

Export demand exhibited continued weakness, as evidenced by India’s May jeera exports, which declined by 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes. Exports during the period of April to May experienced a decline of 22%, totalling 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Yemen, Mexico, and Kenya experienced a significant increase, while buyers from Europe and North America resumed their purchases of residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Geopolitical risks and a prudent approach to purchasing from China persist in limiting overall demand.

Technically, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest has increased by 6.41% to 4,731, while prices have decreased by Rs 215. Jeera exhibits a support level at Rs 20,920, and a breach of this threshold may lead to a test of Rs 20,760. Resistance is positioned at Rs 21,250, and a sustained movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 21,420.