Turmeric concluded the session at Rs 22,222, reflecting a decline of 0.49% as profit booking set in following a recent surge prompted by significant drought concerns in Karnataka and anticipations of reduced production and future supplies. As per the collaborative drought assessment conducted by the Karnataka State Department of Horticulture, the Revenue Department, and KSDMA, the losses in turmeric cultivation have amounted to 13,446 hectares, with a financial impact of Rs 18,824 lakh, relative to the state’s overall cultivation area of approximately 18,000-20,000 hectares. Supply conditions continue to exhibit relative tightness, attributed to diminished carry-forward stocks and a market characterised by hand-to-mouth dynamics. Concurrently, apprehensions regarding El Nino and inadequate rainfall have heightened the risks associated with the newly sown crop.
Carry-forward stocks are estimated at approximately 15 lakh bags, a decline from over 20 lakh bags in the previous season, thereby diminishing the availability buffer. However, the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka has alleviated immediate supply concerns, while enhanced reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have bolstered water availability during the vegetative stage. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has been finalised in the wake of recent rainfall, leading to an enhancement in crop conditions. Meanwhile, the implementation of stricter Maximum Residue Limit regulations by the European Union led to the rejection of lots that did not comply with Integrated Pest Management standards, thereby exerting pressure on commercial-grade turmeric. In contrast, the rising demand for turmeric certified under Integrated Pest Management bolstered the market for compliant stocks.
Farmers also augmented their selling activities during the peak harvest period, thereby constraining the potential for upward price movement. India’s turmeric exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 10%, totalling 13,489 tonnes in July 2026, down from 15,071 tonnes. However, cumulative exports for the period of April to July saw an increase of 4%, rising to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey rose 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increased 644% to 156 tonnes, and Nigeria surged 983% to 69 tonnes, underscoring robust demand from specific markets. In Nizamabad, the principal spot market, prices concluded at Rs 21,395.25, reflecting an increase of 1.7%.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 1.52% decrease in open interest to 35,845, alongside a price decline of Rs 110, which suggests position unwinding. Turmeric exhibits support at Rs 21,972; a sustained breach beneath this threshold may result in a decline to Rs 21,720. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 22,404, and a decisive move above this threshold could lead to an extension of gains toward Rs 22,584.
