Turmeric prices increased by 0.44% to close at Rs 15,700, bolstered by below-average arrivals in major producing regions of Maharashtra and Telangana. Tight availability of quality produce has generated immediate supply concerns, especially as moisture-related crop issues, such as rhizome rot in low-lying areas, have diminished the supply of premium export-grade turmeric. Robust retention by farmers and stockists in key trading hubs like Sangli and Nizamabad, fuelled by anticipations of elevated prices in the future, has further reinforced the solid market sentiment. Premium-grade Salem Fali turmeric continues to command significant premiums, with prices reaching as high as Rs 20,000 per quintal in major markets.

However, gains remained constrained due to a rise in late-harvested turmeric arrivals and a swift stock liquidation by farmers in pursuit of funds for the forthcoming Kharif sowing activities. The increased inflow of average-quality, high-moisture turmeric has led to significant discounting in local mandis, providing a temporary alleviation of supply constraints. Furthermore, the act of profit booking by traders who previously acquired stocks at lower levels earlier in the season has contributed to increased selling pressure.

Export sentiment remains mixed, as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to impact logistics and postpone certain overseas purchasing decisions. Fundamentally, market sentiment remains bolstered by a reduction in carry-forward stocks, estimated at approximately 15 lakh bags, in contrast to over 20 lakh bags from the previous season. Demand from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric and the rising orders for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers are contributing to additional support. The Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of production estimates to 1.14 million tonnes has further bolstered bullish sentiment.

Despite a 16.8% year-on-year decline in March turmeric exports, cumulative exports for the financial year have remained relatively stable, suggesting a robust long-term demand. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 10.99% decline in open interest to 13,965 lots, coinciding with an upward movement in prices. Immediate support is identified at Rs 15,610, with subsequent support at Rs 15,518. Resistance is positioned at Rs 15,774, and a breach of this threshold may lead to an extension of gains towards Rs 15,846.