Jeera prices increased by 0.58% to close at Rs 19,120, bolstered by a reduction in the availability of premium-quality seeds and a resurgence in buying interest from export markets. Demand from European and North American buyers has shown improvement, especially for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Concurrently, domestic industrial processors have been steadily increasing their inventory purchases at prevailing price levels. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have exacerbated supply concerns by damaging standing crops at the harvest stage, leading to apprehensions regarding the diminished availability of high-grade produce.

Furthermore, unseasonal rainfall in northwestern India has postponed drying and processing activities, which has led to a temporary limitation on market supplies and has provided support for prices. Despite these supportive factors, gains remained constrained owing to the rising influx of the new crop from key producing regions. Favourable weather conditions facilitated a more expedited completion of harvesting operations by farmers than initially expected, leading to a significant increase in market arrivals. Farmers have been actively liquidating stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season, thereby contributing to ongoing selling pressure.

Daily arrivals at the Unjha market have stabilised at approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in ample near-term supplies and somewhat alleviating worries regarding diminished production. Fundamentally, the long-term outlook continues to be favourable. Market estimates suggest that national cumin production could decrease to 90–92 lakh bags this season, in contrast to roughly 1.10 crore bags recorded last year. Gujarat’s production is projected to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is anticipated to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. Decreased acreage, diminished yields, and disease incidents in major producing areas have played a significant role in the decline of production. Adverse weather conditions are anticipated to negatively impact production levels in China, while output in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan is similarly expected to be constrained.

Export data revealed a mixed picture, as March shipments experienced a year-on-year decline while showing improvement on a monthly basis, suggesting a gradual recovery in export demand. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a decline in open interest of 11.04% to 7,182 contracts, coinciding with an upward movement in prices. Jeera exhibits immediate support at Rs 19,000, with additional support identified at Rs 18,860. Resistance is identified at Rs 19,220, and a breach of this level may lead to further gains towards Rs 19,300.