Jeera experienced a decline of 1.14%, closing at Rs 20,445, influenced by an influx of new crop arrivals from major Rajasthan centers. Accelerated harvesting, attributed to advantageous weather conditions, resulted in a notable supply increase, as farmers heightened their selling activities to address liquidity requirements for the forthcoming Kharif sowing, thereby exerting persistent downward pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi sustained a high level of approximately 28,500 bags, underscoring the prevailing supply surplus in the near term.

Nonetheless, the potential for downside seems constrained in light of rising apprehensions regarding crop quality and total output. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have inflicted damage on standing crops at the harvest stage, heightening concerns regarding the diminished availability of premium “A-grade” produce. Furthermore, atypical rainfall interfered with drying and processing activities, resulting in short-term supply shortages. The share of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stocks has decreased relative to the previous year, thereby reinforcing premium pricing strategies.

Production estimates fundamentally indicate a significant decline, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. This reflects reduced acreage and lower yields, particularly in Gujarat. Disease outbreaks, including blight, have adversely affected crop quality. Globally, diminished output expectations in China, alongside stable yet constrained production in nations such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, contribute to a tightening outlook. On the demand side, export performance continues to exhibit weakness, with shipments declining by 15% year-on-year during the period of April to February 2026, although there has been some improvement in monthly exports. The expectation of a resurgence in Chinese purchasing activity is contributing to a positive sentiment in the market.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 3.34% decrease in open interest to 7,650 contracts, coinciding with a price decline of Rs 235. Immediate support is identified at Rs 20,310, with potential further decline toward Rs 20,180. Resistance is established at Rs 20,660, and a breach of this level may propel prices toward Rs 20,880.