Jeera prices experienced a notable decrease of -3.69%, closing at Rs 20,090, largely influenced by increased arrivals and proactive selling by farmers. Daily arrivals at Unjha persisted at approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in a pronounced supply surplus in the spot market. Recent inflows from Rajasthan, coupled with accelerated harvesting attributed to favorable weather conditions, have led to a supply surge, contrasting with the previously expected staggered arrivals. Farmers persisted in liquidating their stocks to satisfy liquidity needs in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season, thereby exacerbating the selling pressure.

In spite of the short-term softness, the foundational elements continue to exhibit a degree of support. Weather disruptions, including hailstorms and unseasonal rains in Rajasthan, have adversely affected crop quality, notably diminishing the supply of premium “A-grade” and Sortex-quality jeera. Gujarat’s production is projected to decrease by approximately 27% as a result of reduced acreage and yields, compounded by disease outbreaks that have adversely impacted output.

National production is anticipated to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a notable decline from the previous year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Globally, diminished output forecasts in China (70–80 thousand tons) alongside stable production from other regions such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan create a favorable context. Export data indicates a 15% decline during Apr–Feb 2026, reflecting subdued global demand; however, February exports experienced a 39% month-on-month increase, suggesting a potential recovery.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a -6.84% decline in open interest to 8,700, which suggests the exit of long positions. Jeera is presently encountering support at Rs 19,740, with a breach below this level likely to challenge the Rs 19,370 mark. On the upside, resistance is identified at Rs 20,700, and a movement above this level could propel prices towards Rs 21,290.