Turmeric prices experienced a decline of -1.96%, settling at Rs 16,100, influenced by a significant rise in arrivals at major mandis including Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli. The increase in supply, prompted by farmers hastening their sales to address liquidity requirements for the forthcoming Kharif sowing, resulted in a short-term oversupply in the market. Moreover, increased inflows of late-harvested, moisture-affected turmeric resulted in significant discounting, especially for average-quality lots. Export sentiment continued to exhibit caution in light of the persistent tensions in the Middle East, which have hindered logistics and postponed buying interest. Meanwhile, the lack of new weather threats has diminished the previously existing risk premium.
Nonetheless, the potential for downside appears constrained owing to persistent supply tightness. Arrivals remain below the typical levels expected during the peak season in certain regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, while issues related to quality, such as rhizome rot, have diminished the supply of high-grade “Double Polished” varieties. Farmers and stockists in regions such as Sangli and Nizamabad are exhibiting strong holding patterns, alongside a decrease in carry-forward stocks, which are estimated at 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh last year. This situation continues to bolster the broader outlook.
The demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the European Union, coupled with consistent purchasing activity from Bangladesh, is contributing to market stability. Production has been adjusted downward to 1.140 million tonnes, with rising apprehensions regarding a subpar monsoon contributing to a longer-term bullish sentiment. Export data indicates a modest increase of 1% for the period of April to February 2026, whereas imports experienced a significant decline of 40%, suggesting a decreased dependence on foreign supply sources.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a decrease in open interest of -1.84%, bringing it to 16,770. Immediate support is identified at Rs 15,848, with a breach below this level possibly leading to a test of Rs 15,596. Resistance is established at Rs 16,436, and a breach above this level may propel prices towards the Rs 16,772 mark.