Turmeric prices experienced a decline of -0.52%, concluding at Rs 16,016, influenced by a significant increase in arrivals at major mandis including Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli. The swift liquidation of agricultural produce by farmers, driven by liquidity requirements ahead of the Kharif sowing season, has resulted in a short-term oversupply in the market. Furthermore, the heightened influx of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric has prompted significant discounting for average-quality produce. Concurrently, the persistent tensions in the Middle East have interfered with export logistics and postponed purchasing activities, thereby eliminating the previously established weather-driven risk premium.
Nonetheless, the downside is mitigated by persistent supply constraints and apprehensions regarding quality. In certain regions of Maharashtra and Telangana, arrivals remain below the expected levels for the peak season. Concurrently, challenges such as rhizome rot have led to a decrease in the availability of high-quality “Double Polished” varieties. Producers and distributors in critical areas like Sangli and Nizamabad are maintaining their quality inventories, expecting price increases.
Carry-forward stocks are projected to be approximately 15 lakh bags, a notable decrease from the previous season, thereby constraining supply buffers. Export demand exhibits stability, as shipments from April to February 2026 have increased by 1% year-on-year, whereas imports have experienced a significant decline of 40%, suggesting a diminished reliance on foreign supply. Support is bolstered by the European Union’s demand for IPM-certified turmeric and consistent purchasing from Bangladesh, coupled with a revised production estimate of 1.140 million tonnes.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a decrease in open interest of -0.54% to 16,680, which suggests an ongoing unwinding of long positions. Immediate support is identified at Rs 15,872, with a breach below expected to challenge the Rs 15,726 levels. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 16,182, and a breach above this level could propel prices towards Rs 16,346 levels.