Jeera prices increased by 1.77% to close at Rs 20,680, driven by worries regarding crop damage and a reduction in the availability of premium quality supplies. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have adversely affected standing crops at the harvest stage, heightening concerns regarding diminished “A-grade” output. Furthermore, atypical rainfall in North-West India has hindered drying and processing efforts, resulting in a short-term supply deficiency that has bolstered prices. Fundamentally, the market exhibits a mixed supply scenario.
Despite daily arrivals at Unjha mandi maintaining a robust level of approximately 28,500 bags, which exerts immediate pressure, the quality of these arrivals has emerged as a crucial factor in distinguishing market dynamics. The diminished availability of high-grade “Sortex” quality carryover stocks, coupled with crop damage in Gujarat attributed to blight disease, is contributing to elevated premium pricing. Production estimates suggest a notable decrease, with total output anticipated at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year, indicative of diminished acreage and decreased yields.
Production estimates in key countries such as China, Syria, and Turkey have been adjusted downward as a result of unfavorable weather conditions. Nonetheless, export performance continues to exhibit weakness, as shipments from April to February have declined by 15% year-over-year; however, a rebound in February exports indicates a potential improvement in demand. Anticipations of heightened purchasing activity from China are contributing positively to market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a decline in open interest of -6.55% to 7,914, which suggests the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is identified at Rs 20,330, with a breach below likely to test Rs 19,980. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 20,940, and a sustained movement above this threshold could lead to further gains toward Rs 21,200.