Jeera prices experienced a decline of 1.46%, closing at Rs 20,860, largely influenced by increased arrivals and proactive selling by farmers. Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi persisted at approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in a short-term supply surplus. Recent crop inflows from Rajasthan, coupled with accelerated harvesting attributed to favorable weather conditions, have heightened supply pressures. Concurrently, farmers are offloading stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season.

Notwithstanding the present fragility, the foundational elements continue to exhibit a degree of support. Adverse weather events, such as hailstorms and unseasonal rains in Rajasthan and North-West India, have negatively affected crop quality, particularly diminishing the supply of premium “A-grade” and Sortex-quality jeera. Furthermore, Gujarat’s production is projected to decrease by approximately 27% as a result of reduced acreage and yield apprehensions, with disease outbreaks exacerbating the decline in output.

National production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, a notable decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Globally, diminished output forecasts in China (70–80 thousand tons) alongside stable yet constrained production from Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan contribute to supply-side apprehensions. Nonetheless, export performance continues to be lackluster, as January shipments experienced a 48% year-over-year decline, while exports from April to January fell by 15%, indicative of muted global demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a -2.01% decrease in open interest to 9,339, which suggests the unwinding of existing long positions. Jeera is presently encountering support at Rs 20,700, and a breach beneath this level may drive prices down to Rs 20,530. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 21,140, with a breakout possibly resulting in a test of Rs 21,410 levels.