Jeera prices experienced a decrease of 0.32%, concluding at Rs 18,860, as the influx of new crop arrivals from key producing areas negatively impacted market sentiment. Recent inflows from major Rajasthan centers have increased markedly due to advantageous harvesting conditions, alleviating worries regarding imminent supply constraints. Favourable weather conditions in North-West India facilitated a quicker completion of harvesting operations by farmers, leading to an unexpectedly high influx of produce into physical markets. Furthermore, farmers have been proactively liquidating stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season, thereby sustaining consistent supply pressure in key mandis.

Daily arrivals at the benchmark Unjha market have stabilised at approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in a temporary supply surplus that constrains price recovery. However, downside pressure remained constrained due to apprehensions surrounding crop quality. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have reportedly inflicted damage on standing crops during the harvest period, heightening concerns regarding the availability of premium-grade cumin. Unseasonal rainfall has resulted in delays in drying and processing activities, leading to temporary disruptions in the movement of quality produce. Market participants observed that the supply of high-grade Sortex-quality carryover stocks has diminished compared to the previous year, thereby reinforcing premiums for superior-quality material.

Fundamental support also arises from reduced production estimates. Industry sources indicate that total cumin production for the current season may decline to approximately 90-92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat’s production is projected to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is anticipated to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. Reduced acreage, lower yields, and disease outbreaks in certain regions of Gujarat have led to a diminished crop outlook. Production estimates in China have been adjusted downward as a result of unfavourable weather conditions, which may bolster global demand for Indian cumin. Export performance exhibited a varied landscape.

March exports experienced a decline of 15.54% compared to the previous year, indicative of diminished global demand and increased competition from alternative sources. Nonetheless, exports exhibited an improvement on a monthly basis, suggesting a gradual resurgence in global purchasing interest. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 4.23% decline in open interest to 8,769 contracts, coinciding with a decrease in prices. Immediate support is observed at Rs 18,730, with subsequent support at Rs 18,590. Resistance is established at Rs 18,990, and a breach of this threshold may lead to further advancements toward Rs 19,110.