Turmeric prices increased by 2.23%, closing at Rs 16,474, bolstered by constrained supply conditions in major producing areas. Arrivals at key mandis in Maharashtra and Telangana have fallen short of normal levels during the peak season, resulting in a significant supply constraint. Concerns regarding quality, especially those associated with moisture, such as rhizome rot, have led to a further decline in the availability of premium “Double Polished” turmeric. In markets like Sangli and Nizamabad, there is a noticeable trend of farmers and stockists withholding supplies, anticipating that prices will approach Rs 18,000.
Meanwhile, the high-grade “Salem Fali” maintains its position by commanding significant premiums. Nonetheless, the potential for growth is somewhat constrained by heightened selling activity from farmers aiming to generate liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif season, coupled with profit-taking by traders who had previously acquired stocks at more favorable prices. Notwithstanding this, the general availability continues to be constrained, with carry-forward stocks projected at approximately 15 lakh bags in contrast to more than 20 lakh bags in the previous year.
Demand continues to be robust, bolstered by consistent export inquiries, especially from Bangladesh, alongside an increasing interest in IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers. Export trends indicate a degree of short-term softness, as January shipments have decreased year-on-year; however, cumulative exports remain stable, suggesting consistent medium-term demand. Meanwhile, imports have declined significantly, indicating a diminished dependence on foreign supply.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 1.97% decrease in open interest, bringing it down to 17,665. Immediate support is identified at Rs 16,064, with potential further decline to Rs Rs 15,652, while resistance is positioned at Rs 16,716. A breakout above this level may propel prices toward Rs 16,956, suggesting sustained strength in the market.