Turmeric prices ended the session positively, increasing by 1.61% to close at Rs 16,646, supported by fresh buying activity, despite the market experiencing continued pressure from increased arrivals during the peak harvest season. Farmers have ramped up stock liquidation to meet liquidity requirements ahead of the Kharif sowing season, leading to a steady flow of supplies into major mandis. Daily arrivals have surpassed current demand, leading to short-term price pressure. Additionally, significant inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal, have caused buyers to exercise caution.

Additional pressure emerged from reports indicating quality deterioration and rhizome rot in certain harvested lots, compelling sellers to provide discounts for average-quality produce. However, the underlying market sentiment remained supported by a decrease in overall stock availability and steady export demand. Industry estimates suggest that carry-forward stocks have diminished to around 15 lakh bags, a decline from more than 20 lakh bags the previous year. This reduction has decreased the availability buffer, even considering the current supply influx. Demand from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric has shown strong resilience, particularly in the markets of Andhra Pradesh.

Furthermore, the rising interest from European purchasers in Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric has strengthened backing for high-quality stocks. In March 2026, turmeric exports saw a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%, amounting to 12,559.72 tonnes. This downturn underscores a reduction in international demand alongside increased global competition. Nevertheless, exports showed an improvement of 10.14% compared to February, suggesting a gradual recovery in buying interest. Cumulative exports for the April-March 2026 period remained broadly stable at 175,896 tonnes, underscoring a robust long-term international demand.

Meanwhile, the progression of the Southwest Monsoon and projections of above-normal rainfall have improved the outlook for the forthcoming planting season, cultivating expectations of expanded acreage in 2026-27. Technically, the market is witnessing a surge in buying activity, evidenced by a 20.9% increase in open interest to 19,815 contracts, alongside a price rise of Rs 264. Turmeric shows immediate support at Rs 16,538, followed by additional support at Rs 16,432. Resistance is noted at Rs 16,762, and a move above this level could result in additional gains towards Rs 16,880.