Jeera settled 0.21% lower at Rs 20,895, influenced by significant selling from farmers who liquidated stocks to secure cash flow for Kharif sowing. Favourable weather conditions in Northwest India facilitated quicker harvesting and drying processes, leading to an increase in arrivals. Concurrently, the rise in NCDEX warehouse stocks diminished the necessity for immediate spot procurement. However, the downside remained constrained as supplies of premium-quality bold seeds tightened swiftly, with daily arrivals at Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan starting to decline markedly. Blight outbreaks in significant regions of Gujarat have adversely affected both the quality and quantity of the harvestable crop. Demand exhibited a cautious stance as major industrial spice grinders postponed bulk acquisitions, while domestic processors and stockists opted for a hand-to-mouth purchasing approach.

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East persisted, impacting logistics and demand from conventional buyers, whereas enhanced production prospects in Turkey and Syria exerted downward pressure on Indian export premiums. European and North American buyers, however, returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India’s cumin production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags this season, a significant decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. The production estimates for Gujarat stand at 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce between 48 and 50 lakh bags.

Outside India, China’s production is estimated to be between 70,000 and 80,000 tonnes. In comparison, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are projected to produce approximately 9,000 to 10,000 tonnes, 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes, and 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes, respectively. India’s jeera exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 26%, totalling 17,177 tonnes in May. Additionally, exports for the April-May period decreased by 22%, amounting to 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Yemen, Mexico, and Kenya experienced a significant increase, suggesting a strengthening demand from emerging markets. In Unjha, spot prices concluded at Rs 20,582.45, reflecting a decrease of 0.15%.

Technically, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest has risen by 4.87% to 5,946 contracts, coinciding with a price decline of Rs 45. Jeera exhibits support levels at 20,820 and subsequently at Rs 20,750, with resistance identified at Rs 21,000. A sustained move above Rs 21,000 could extend gains toward Rs 21,110, whereas failure to hold Rs 20,820 may increase selling pressure.