Jeera prices concluded with an increase of 0.85% at Rs 19,675, driven by apprehensions regarding crop damage and a reduction in the availability of premium-quality supplies. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms across Rajasthan have impacted standing crops during the harvest stage, heightening concerns about the potential decrease in the availability of high-grade “A-grade” and “Sortex” quality jeera. Furthermore, atypical rainfall in North-West India has postponed the drying and processing of the new crop, resulting in short-term supply disruptions in critical producing areas. While carry-forward stocks are still accessible, the share of high-quality stocks has diminished relative to the previous year, which has sustained premium pricing in the physical market.

Market sentiment also remained bolstered by anticipations of increased Chinese purchasing activity starting in mid-April for the purpose of inventory replenishment. However, the potential for upward movement was constrained by the influx of new crop arrivals and the assertive selling activities of farmers. Enhanced weather conditions in Rajasthan and Gujarat facilitated accelerated harvesting activities, leading to an unexpected supply surge rather than the previously expected staggered arrivals. Farmers persistently liquidated stocks to raise capital for the forthcoming Kharif sowing season, thereby exerting ongoing selling pressure in the mandis.

Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilised at high levels around 28,500 bags, resulting in noticeable near-term oversupply conditions. Despite this, overall production prospects have remained diminished in comparison to the previous year. Industry estimates suggest that cumin production in India is likely to decrease to approximately 90–92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, attributed to reduced acreage and diminished yields. Gujarat’s production is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is projected to be in the range of 48 to 50 lakh bags.

Globally, adverse weather conditions have led to a reduction in production estimates in China to approximately 70–80 thousand tonnes, which in turn bolsters the overall price outlook. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 1.46% decrease in open interest, which has settled at 10,323 lots, alongside a price increase of Rs 165. Jeera is presently encountering support at Rs 19,460, with additional declines anticipated to challenge the Rs 19,220 levels. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 19,830, and a sustained move above this level could propel prices toward Rs 19,960.