Jeera prices concluded with an increase of 1.88% at Rs 20340, bolstered by disruptions on the supply side and concerns regarding quality in the physical market. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan during the crucial harvesting period have adversely affected standing crops, leading to apprehensions regarding the diminished supply of premium “A-grade” quality. Furthermore, unseasonal precipitation in North-West India has postponed drying and processing operations, resulting in a short-term supply gap and constraining immediate availability. The share of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stocks is reported to be diminished relative to the previous year, which has additionally bolstered price premiums in the spot market.

Nonetheless, the potential for growth was constrained by a consistent rise in new crop arrivals from major producing areas in Rajasthan. Favorable weather conditions enabled farmers to expedite harvesting, leading to a supply surge instead of a staggered arrival pattern. Farmers are in the process of liquidating stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season, which is contributing to ongoing selling pressure.

Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi sustained a high level, averaging approximately 28,500 bags, indicative of sufficient short-term supply. On the production front, estimates suggest a significant 27% decrease in output from Gujarat, attributed to reduced acreage and yields, with disease outbreaks exacerbating the decline in crop quality. Export data indicated a 15% year-on-year decline for the period of April to February 2026, despite an improvement in monthly exports. Globally, diminished production forecasts in China alongside stable output from other regions present a complex landscape.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 9.67% decline in open interest to 6555, alongside a price increase of Rs 375. Jeera is currently encountering support at Rs 19980, with potential further decline towards Rs 19600. Resistance is identified at Rs 20560, and a breach above this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 20760.