Jeera settled 0.5% lower at Rs 20,995 as aggressive farmer liquidation heightened selling pressure, with favourable weather in Northwest India facilitating quicker harvesting and drying, thereby accelerating market arrivals. Increasing NCDEX warehouse stocks have diminished the necessity for immediate spot procurement, as major industrial spice grinders exercise caution regarding bulk purchases, opting instead to await more favourable pricing levels. However, the downside remained constrained as the availability of premium-quality bold seeds tightened swiftly, with arrivals at key markets like Unjha and Rajasthan starting to decline.
Export-grade, high-purity cumin supplies are diminishing at a rate that exceeds the decline in overall physical availability, as blight outbreaks in Gujarat have negatively impacted both crop quality and the quantities available for harvest. European and North American buyers have selectively re-entered the market for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, bolstering demand. However, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East persists in disrupting logistics and traditional buying interest. Domestic processors and stockists are also scaling back on their aggressive forward coverage. Production estimates suggest that Indian jeera output may decrease to 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year. The forecast for Gujarat’s production stands at 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is projected to be between 48-50 lakh bags.
Overseas production continues to hold considerable importance, with China’s output projected to be between 70,000 and 80,000 tonnes. In contrast, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are anticipated to yield 9,000 to 10,000 tonnes, 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes, and 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes, respectively. India’s jeera exports experienced a significant decline of 34% year-on-year, totalling 10,713 tonnes in June 2026. Furthermore, exports for the April-June period decreased by 25%, amounting to 44,144 tonnes. Robust shipments to Singapore, Oman, and Argentina offered a degree of support; however, they were insufficient to counterbalance the overarching decline.
In Unjha, spot prices concluded at Rs 21,273.45, reflecting an increase of 0.05%. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 9.95% decline in open interest to 4,317, accompanied by a price drop of Rs 105. Jeera is finding support around Rs 20,860, and a persistent breach beneath this threshold may result in a decline to Rs 20,730. Resistance is positioned at Rs 21,160, and a breach of this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 21,330.
