Turmeric concluded the trading session with a 3.59% increase, reaching a level of Rs 20,684. This upward movement was bolstered by a combination of factors including tightening supplies, a reduction in carry-forward stocks, concerns over insufficient rainfall, and apprehensions regarding the potential impact of El Nino on the newly sown crop. The market remains sensitive to weather developments, as continued dryness during early crop growth could reduce yields. Additionally, lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key producing regions has raised concerns over upcoming output. Turmeric acreage is projected to rise by 16.05% year-on-year starting in 2025, remaining above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares. This trend may constrain potential gains, assuming that favourable weather conditions continue.
Monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka showed notable improvement in mid-July, alleviating concerns regarding drought. Concurrently, reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh enhanced water availability. Recent rainfall across major growing regions is anticipated to expedite sowing, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been finalised due to enhanced precipitation. However, the potential impact of El Nino continues to pose a significant risk for crop development. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at approximately 15 lakh bags, a decrease from over 20 lakh bags in the previous season, suggesting a considerably reduced availability buffer.
Meanwhile, stricter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have led to the rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, while the demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric continues to bolster compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports experienced a significant increase of 30% year-on-year, reaching 17,987 tonnes in June 2026. Additionally, the cumulative exports for the April-June period rose by 8%, totalling 51,987 tonnes. Robust demand was observed from China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Uruguay, bolstering the overall export outlook. However, the sale of produce by farmers during the peak harvest period, coupled with improved monsoon conditions, may limit potential gains. Nizamabad spot turmeric concluded at Rs 20,110.5, reflecting an increase of 0.94%.
Technically, the market is experiencing renewed buying activity, evidenced by a 22.10% increase in open interest to 30,475 contracts, alongside a price gain of Rs 716. Turmeric exhibits a support level at Rs 19,898, with a breach below this threshold likely to challenge Rs 19,114. Resistance is positioned at Rs 21,218, and a sustained movement above this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 21,754.
