Jeera prices declined by 0.3% to close at Rs 19,965, influenced by heightened arrivals from major mandis in Rajasthan. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India facilitated accelerated harvesting, leading to an abrupt increase in supply instead of a gradual distribution. Farmers are currently offloading stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season, thereby sustaining consistent selling pressure. Moreover, arrivals at Unjha mandi have reached a steady state at high levels of approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in a noticeable supply surplus that persists in limiting potential price increases.

Nonetheless, the potential for downside appears constrained owing to burgeoning supply-side issues. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have adversely affected standing crops at the harvest stage, heightening concerns regarding the diminished supply of premium “A-grade” produce. Unseasonal rains have resulted in delays in drying and processing, leading to temporary disruptions in supply. Furthermore, the supply of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stock has diminished relative to the previous year, thereby reinforcing premium pricing for superior quality material.

Production estimates suggest a more constrained overall supply situation. Domestic output is anticipated to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a notable decrease from the previous year’s 1.10 crore bags. This decline in Gujarat’s production can be attributed to reduced acreage and yield losses resulting from blight disease. On the global front, diminished production forecasts in China attributed to unfavorable weather conditions, coupled with consistent output from other producing nations, are shaping market sentiment. Export data continues to exhibit weakness when compared year-on-year; however, a robust month-on-month recovery in February suggests a resurgence in demand, especially with the anticipation of heightened purchasing from China.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 5.73% decrease in open interest to 7,257 lots, alongside a price decline of Rs 60. Immediate support is identified at Rs 19,800, with potential further decline toward Rs 19,630. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 20,140, and a sustained move above this level could propel prices toward Rs 20,310.