Jeera concluded the trading session with an increase of 0.41%, reaching Rs 20,920. This rise is attributed to the diminishing supply of premium-quality bold seeds, as arrivals in key markets like Unjha and Rajasthan have begun to decline. While the general physical availability holds steady, the supply of export-grade, high-purity bold seeds is diminishing more rapidly than anticipated. Concurrently, blight outbreaks in critical producing regions of Gujarat have adversely impacted both the quality of the crops and the volumes that can be harvested. However, the potential for upside remains limited as farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate cash flow for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather conditions have facilitated quicker harvesting and drying.

Increasing NCDEX warehouse stocks have diminished the immediacy for spot procurement, prompting major spice grinders to take a prudent stance and restrict bulk purchases. Domestic processors and stockists are engaging in hand-to-mouth buying, as enhanced production prospects in Turkey and Syria exert downward pressure on Indian export premiums. Nevertheless, buyers from Europe and North America have re-entered the market for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Domestic jeera production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags this season, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. In Gujarat, production is estimated at 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is anticipated to be between 48 and 50 lakh bags.

China’s production is projected to be between 70,000 and 80,000 tonnes as a result of unfavourable weather conditions. In contrast, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are anticipated to yield approximately 9,000 to 10,000 tonnes, 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes, and 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes, respectively. India’s jeera exports experienced a significant decline of 34% year-on-year, totalling 10,713 tonnes in June. Furthermore, exports for the April-June period decreased by 25%, amounting to 44,144 tonnes. Singapore, Oman, and Argentina experienced robust growth; however, these advancements were inadequate to counterbalance the overall decline in exports. In Unjha, spot prices decreased by 0.32%, settling at Rs 20,590.85.

Technically, jeera is experiencing short covering, as open interest has decreased by 3.01% to 8,904, while prices have increased by Rs 85. Support is positioned at Rs 20,820, with an additional level at Rs 20,710. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 21,070 and Rs 21,210. A move above Rs 21,070 could push gains to Rs 21,210, while a drop below Rs 20,820 may lead to weakness at Rs 20,710.