Turmeric experienced a significant decline of 5.73%, closing at Rs 20,494, as profit-taking surged following the resurgence of monsoon conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka, which alleviated worries regarding dry weather and possible crop damage. Enhanced rainfall and the replenishment of critical reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have secured improved water availability during the vegetative phase. Concurrently, re-sowing in North Karnataka has been finalised due to the favourable precipitation conditions. Nevertheless, the downside is constrained by persistently tight supplies, diminished carry-forward stocks, and apprehensions regarding the effects of El Nino on the recently planted crop.
Turmeric acreage is projected to rise by 16.05% year-on-year starting in 2025, remaining above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares. However, traders are closely observing whether enhanced weather conditions will lead to consistent production increases. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at approximately 15 lakh bags, a decline from over 20 lakh bags in the previous season, thereby diminishing the availability buffer. The increase in near-term supply pressure is attributed to farmers selling during the peak harvest period, while stockists exhibit a cautious approach. The regulations regarding Maximum Residue Limits in the European Union have resulted in the rejection of lots that do not comply with Integrated Pest Management standards, thereby discounting commercial-grade turmeric.
However, the increasing demand for IPM-certified turmeric is bolstering the stocks that meet these compliance requirements. Export demand remains robust, with June exports increasing by 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes, while exports for the April-June period rose by 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China’s shipments experienced a remarkable cumulative increase of 2,710%, reaching a total of 2,108 tonnes. In a similar vein, exports to Oman saw a significant rise of 469%, amounting to 2,342 tonnes. Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and Uruguay also recorded robust growth. In Nizamabad, the spot price of turmeric decreased by 2.48%, reaching Rs 19,957.4.
Technically, the market continues to experience long liquidation, as evidenced by a 2.35% decline in open interest to 35,910, accompanied by a price drop of Rs 1,246. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 20,010, succeeded by Rs 19,526, whereas resistance is observed at Rs 21,404 and Rs 22,314. A sustained break below Rs 20,010 could extend weakness toward Rs 19,526, whereas a move above Rs 21,404 may revive buying interest toward Rs 22,314.
