Jeera yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.1% at Rs 19485, bolstered by apprehensions regarding crop quality and weather-related disruptions in key producing areas. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms across Rajasthan have inflicted damage on standing crops during the harvest stage, heightening concerns regarding the diminished availability of premium “A-grade” jeera. Unseasonal rains in North-West India have resulted in delays in drying and processing activities, leading to temporary disruptions in supply. Furthermore, the supply of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stocks is still below last year’s levels, which sustains premium pricing in the physical market.

Nevertheless, the gains were constrained as new crop arrivals from Rajasthan surged, alleviating worries regarding imminent supply shortages. Favorable weather conditions facilitated the acceleration of harvesting activities, leading to a substantial supply increase rather than the previously expected staggered arrivals. Farmers are currently liquidating stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season, which is contributing to consistent selling pressure in spot markets. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have settled around 28,500 bags, resulting in a noticeable supply surplus and constraining upward price movement.

The market fundamentally remains buoyed by reduced production estimates. Jeera production for the current season is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Production in Gujarat is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas output in Rajasthan is projected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. Blight disease in Gujarat, along with reduced acreage, has adversely affected both crop quality and yields. Simultaneously, anticipations of heightened demand from China, coupled with diminished output in rival nations like China, Syria, and Turkey, are bolstering market sentiment.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed buying activity, evidenced by a 0.44% increase in open interest, which has settled at 10,986, alongside a price increase of Rs 20. Jeera is currently finding support at Rs 19120; should prices fall below this level, they may test the Rs 18760 mark. Conversely, resistance is observed at Rs 19720, with a potential upward movement likely to challenge the Rs 19960 threshold.