Jeera futures experienced a notable decline of 2.05%, closing at Rs 20,025, largely influenced by an influx of new crop arrivals from major Rajasthan regions. Favorable weather conditions facilitated quicker harvesting in North-West India, leading to an abrupt increase in supply instead of a steady influx. Farmers are strategically offloading stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the Kharif sowing season, thereby sustaining a steady selling pressure. Furthermore, daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have settled at high levels of approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in a noticeable supply surplus that has impacted prices negatively.
Nonetheless, the downside is somewhat mitigated by emerging supply-side concerns. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have adversely affected standing crops at the harvest stage, heightening concerns regarding the potential decrease in the availability of premium “A-grade” and “Sortex” quality jeera. Unseasonal rains have resulted in delays in drying and processing, leading to short-term disruptions in the supply flow. Additionally, the production in Gujarat is projected to decrease by approximately 27% as a result of reduced acreage and yield losses, with blight disease further affecting both quality and output.
On the global front, diminished production forecasts in China, coupled with steady output expectations from Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, are shaping market sentiment. Domestic production is estimated to be in the range of 90–92 lakh bags, which marks a notable decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Export data continues to show weakness, as shipments from April to February 2026 have decreased by 15% compared to the previous year. However, a notable month-on-month recovery in February suggests a potential improvement in demand. Anticipation of renewed Chinese purchasing activity provides medium-term backing.
The market is currently experiencing new selling pressure, evidenced by a 0.63% increase in open interest to 7,698 lots, alongside a price decline of Rs 420. Immediate support is identified at Rs 19,840, with a breach below potentially testing Rs 19,640. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 20,300, and a sustained movement above this level could drive prices toward Rs 20,560.