Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.57% at Rs 19,170, influenced by subdued export demand following the end of the retail season. Market participants observed that the decline can be attributed to the subdued activity from foreign buyers alongside ample domestic supplies. The current season has farmers in possession of approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with expectations that only 3–4 lakh bags will be traded by the season’s conclusion, resulting in a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags.

Support is anticipated following the GST council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, a move expected to alleviate pressures on FMCG exports and bolster domestic demand. On the production front, the current season is projected to maintain production levels akin to the previous year, attributed to favorable crop conditions and sowing practices. Domestic cumin production is projected to reach 90–92 lakh bags, with Gujarat accounting for 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan contributing 48–50 lakh bags.

During the period from April to July 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 19.81%, totaling 73,026.35 tonnes, in contrast to 91,070.02 tonnes recorded in the corresponding timeframe of the previous year. In July, exports experienced a year-on-year decrease of 20.83%, totaling 13,778.60 tonnes, while also reflecting a month-on-month decline of 15.58% compared to June.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by a 13.53% increase in open interest to 2,190 contracts, alongside a price decline of Rs 110. Jeera is currently finding support at Rs 19,110, and a breach of this level could lead to a decline toward Rs 19,030. Resistance is identified at Rs 19,290, and a sustained movement above this threshold may challenge Rs 19,390.