Turmeric prices increased by 3.25% to close at Rs 18,988, influenced by reduced market arrivals, constrained spot supplies, and consistent export demand. Total arrivals were estimated at approximately 8,500 bags, a significant decline from 18,000 bags in the prior session, primarily attributed to the closure of key markets in Maharashtra. The significant drop in arrivals bolstered spot prices as buyers vied for scarce supplies. Recent monsoon rainfall in crucial turmeric-growing areas has enhanced soil moisture and expedited Kharif sowing. However, overall market sentiment continues to be bolstered by persistently tight supplies and diminished carry-forward stocks.

Fundamentally, favourable rainfall over the past week is anticipated to promote an increase in turmeric acreage during the ongoing Kharif season, as prices remain close to multi-year highs. Future crop prospects hinge on the timely and equitable distribution of monsoon rains, as traders remain vigilant regarding any potential ramifications stemming from El Niño. Improved weather conditions have marginally alleviated apprehensions about the forthcoming crop; however, diminished production from the prior season coupled with decreasing carry-forward stocks persist in bolstering prices.

Industry estimates suggest that carry-forward inventories have decreased to approximately 15 lakh bags, down from over 20 lakh bags in the previous year. Export demand exhibited a positive trend, as evidenced by India’s turmeric exports, which experienced a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year in April. Robust shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan counterbalanced softer exports to the UAE and the United States, indicating a solid demand across a range of international markets. Meanwhile, Nizamabad spot prices increased by 0.9%, reinforcing the optimistic sentiment in the physical market.

Turmeric is currently experiencing fresh buying interest, as indicated by a 1.33% increase in open interest alongside rising prices. Immediate support is established at Rs 18,554, with additional downside support located at Rs 18,122. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 19,234, and a sustained breakout above this level could potentially extend the rally toward Rs 19,482 in the near term.