Jeera settled lower yesterday by 1.02% at Rs 19,940, as the influx of fresh crop from key producing regions in Rajasthan alleviated previous worries about supply constraints. Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to expedite harvesting activities, leading to a significant supply surge rather than a staggered market arrival pattern. Farmers are actively liquidating their stocks to enhance liquidity in anticipation of the forthcoming Kharif sowing season, thereby contributing to ongoing selling pressure in the physical market. Daily arrivals at the benchmark Unjha mandi persisted at approximately 28,500 bags, resulting in a discernible supply surplus that exerted downward pressure on prices.

Nonetheless, the downside appeared constrained due to apprehensions surrounding crop quality and diminished overall production forecasts. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have reportedly inflicted damage on standing crops during the harvest stage, heightening concerns regarding the potential decrease in the availability of premium “A-grade” jeera. Unseasonal rains have led to delays in drying and processing activities, resulting in temporary disruptions in market supplies. While carry-forward stocks exist, the availability of high-quality “Sortex” grade material has diminished relative to the previous year, thereby sustaining elevated prices. Production estimates persist in signaling a reduction in domestic output this season. Total jeera production is projected to be approximately 90–92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags.

Production in Gujarat is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas output in Rajasthan is projected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. The impact of blight disease on crops in Gujarat has led to a decline in both quality and yields. Globally, diminished production forecasts in China attributed to unfavorable weather patterns are bolstering sentiment, while anticipations of robust Chinese purchasing interest persist in sustaining the market. During the period of April to February 2026, jeera exports experienced a decline of 15%, totaling 166,536 tonnes, in contrast to 195,164 tonnes in the previous year.

However, exports in February saw a notable increase of 39% on a month-to-month basis. In the Unjha spot market, prices concluded at Rs 20,019.6, reflecting a decrease of 0.46%. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 9.46% increase in open interest, which has settled at 6,663, alongside a price decline of Rs 205. Jeera is currently finding support at Rs 19,850; a decline below this level could lead prices to test the Rs 19,770 mark. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 20,060, with a potential upward movement likely to challenge the Rs 20,190 level.