Jeera prices experienced a decline of 1.05%, concluding at Rs 21,615, influenced by the influx of the new crop and favorable supply conditions prevailing in the market. Weak export demand, particularly from China, has exacerbated the situation, resulting in an accumulation of domestic inventories. Farmers are currently engaged in selling their produce to capitalize on existing prices, thereby maintaining pressure in the near term.

On the production front, output is anticipated to decline by approximately 5% this year, reaching 5.13 lakh tonnes. Gujarat, a significant contributor to production, is anticipated to experience a notable decline in output attributed to reduced acreage and diminished yields, with sowing decreasing by more than 14% compared to the previous year. Conversely, Rajasthan is anticipated to mitigate part of this downturn through increased production bolstered by improved yields.

Weather-related risks, encompassing heatwaves and pest infestations like aphids, persist in generating uncertainty regarding the ultimate size of the crop yield. Export demand continues to be a significant issue, as shipments have experienced a notable decline both monthly and cumulatively, indicating a lack of robust global interest. In light of constrained global supplies stemming from disruptions in other producing nations, India’s export momentum continues to exhibit weakness.

The market is currently experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by a 12.76% increase in open interest. Jeera exhibits immediate support at Rs 21,470, with potential further decline towards Rs 21,330. On the upside, resistance is identified at Rs 21,820, and a movement beyond this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 22,030.