Jeera prices experienced a modest increase of 0.05%, concluding at Rs 21,845, despite the commencement of new crop arrivals in the market. Nonetheless, the potential for growth is limited by ample supplies and lackluster export demand, especially given the tepid purchasing activity from China. Farmers are currently liquidating inventories to capitalize on prevailing price levels, contributing to immediate supply pressures. On the production front, output is anticipated to decrease by approximately 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this season.

Gujarat, the principal producing state, is anticipated to experience a significant 27% decline in production, attributed to reduced acreage and diminished yields, as sowing has already decreased by more than 14% compared to the previous year. Conversely, Rajasthan is projected to counterbalance some of this downturn with a 15% rise in production, bolstered by improved yields and a marginal increase in acreage.

Weather risks, encompassing heatwaves and pest infestations such as aphids, persist as significant threats to crop quality and ultimate yields. Export performance continues to be a point of concern, as shipments have declined significantly on both a monthly and cumulative basis, indicative of subdued global demand. In light of constrained global supplies stemming from disruptions in nations such as Syria and Turkey, India’s export performance continues to exhibit sluggishness.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed buying interest, as evidenced by a 13.18% increase in open interest. Jeera exhibits immediate support at Rs 21,740, with potential for further decline towards Rs 21,630. On the upside, resistance is identified at Rs 22,020, and a breakout above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 22,190.