Jeera prices concluded the trading session nearly unchanged, with a marginal increase of 0.02% to reach Rs 23,525, as initial profit-taking limited upward movement following the commencement of new-crop arrivals in certain markets. Anticipated arrivals are projected to accelerate starting in March, which, combined with ample existing inventories and subdued export demand, has maintained a lid on prices. Nonetheless, the potential drawbacks are constrained by weather-related obstacles and postponed sowing, especially in Gujarat, where the fields were not adequately prepared in a timely manner. Jeera sowing in the state has decreased to 4.08 lakh hectares, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.34%, which is likely to constrict supply expectations.
In Unjha, the volume of arrivals remains subdued, while high-quality cumin continues to attract premium pricing. The fundamentals indicate a varied landscape. Export demand from the Gulf and China has exhibited a degree of improvement; however, it continues to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity. Logistical challenges and adverse weather conditions in India and the Middle East are constraining supply, thereby providing upward pressure on prices.
The conclusion of the retail season, coupled with prudent international purchasing, is constraining potential gains. Current season production is projected to decline to 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year, primarily attributed to a decrease in sowing activities. Carry-forward stocks are estimated to be approximately 16 lakh bags, which could mitigate the potential for any significant rally. During the period from April to November 2025, exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, notwithstanding a recovery observed in November.
From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 1.82% decrease in open interest to 5,178, alongside a price increase of Rs 5. Jeera exhibits support at Rs 23,310; a breach below this level could pave the way towards Rs 23,100. Resistance is observed at Rs 23,710, with a potential upward movement that may challenge Rs 23,900.