Jeera prices exhibited an increase yesterday, closing higher by 2.26% at Rs 24,870, bolstered by weather-related challenges and postponed sowing, especially in Gujarat, where agricultural conditions are still unready due to irregular rainfall patterns. Gujarat is experiencing a notably sluggish sowing season, with current acreage at 3,98,438 hectares, reflecting a significant decline of 16.31% compared to the previous year. Arrivals at the pivotal Unjha market are notably subdued, with premium-quality cumin sustaining elevated prices, thereby providing immediate support to the market dynamics.

Nonetheless, the potential for upward movement seems constrained given the ample overall supplies and lackluster export demand. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has exhibited slight improvement, yet it continues to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity. As the retail season comes to a close and foreign purchasing remains subdued, the present export demands are being satisfied through available inventories.

It is estimated that farmers are currently holding approximately 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded prior to the conclusion of the season. This situation results in a substantial carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, indicative of a contraction in the sowing area. Export data continues to exhibit weakness, as shipments from April to October 2025 have declined by 13.21% compared to the previous year.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a slight decline in open interest of 0.05% alongside a price increase of Rs 550. Support is identified at Rs 24,290, with potential testing of Rs 23,710 if this level is breached, while resistance is established at Rs 25,210, and a breakout could propel prices towards Rs 25,550.