Jeera yesterday concluded with a modest increase of 0.17% at Rs 20845, as weather-related delays and inconsistent rainfall persist in obstructing sowing progress, thereby sustaining elevated prices. In Gujarat, sowing reached 2,60,925 hectares, reflecting a slight decline of 0.45% compared to the previous year, as farmers faced challenges in initiating operations due to fields that were not adequately prepared. Arrivals at Unjha are notably low, and high-quality cumin continues to command elevated prices. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown a slight improvement; however, it continues to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity, particularly in the context of logistical challenges and constrained supplies in India and the Middle East.

Nonetheless, the potential for growth appears limited as foreign purchasers have shown a lack of activity following the retail season, with current export obligations being satisfied through available inventories. Low arrivals during Diwali, coupled with the reduction in GST rate to 5%, have contributed positively by enhancing FMCG and domestic demand. Farmers currently retain close to 20 lakh bags; however, it is anticipated that only 3–4 lakh bags will be traded. This situation will lead to a significant carry-forward stock estimated at around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decrease compared to last year’s total of 1.10 crore bags.

The estimated output for Gujarat stands at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is projected to be between 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, output in China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan has contracted due to unfavorable weather conditions; however, India’s export demand continues to exhibit weakness. From April to September 2025, exports experienced a decline of 14.51%, totaling 101,898.64 tonnes.

However, September saw an increase in exports, rising by 2.20% year-on-year and 22.93% month-on-month. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 3.48% decline in open interest, bringing it to 2,580. Jeera exhibits support at Rs 20670; a decline below this level may see a test of Rs 20470. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 21000, with a breach above this threshold potentially propelling prices to Rs 21130.