Jeera yesterday concluded with a decline of 0.49% at Rs 21,475, influenced by ample supplies and a lack of robust export demand in the context of sufficient stock levels. Notwithstanding this, the downside appeared constrained as weather-related disruptions and postponed sowing persist in providing fundamental support. In Gujarat, sowing has experienced a decline of 7.74%, reaching 1,94,775 hectares as of 1 December 2025, in contrast to 2,11,121 hectares recorded in the previous year, attributed to uneven rainfall that has hindered field preparation. Arrivals at Unjha are notably low, and high-quality cumin continues to attract premium prices. Export demand from Gulf nations and China has shown a modest improvement; however, it continues to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity stemming from global logistical challenges and weather-related issues that are constraining supply chains. The conclusion of the retail season, coupled with subdued engagement from foreign buyers, has effectively limited the potential for upward movement.

The carry-forward stocks are substantial, amounting to nearly 20 lakh bags. Of this total, only 3–4 lakh bags are anticipated to be traded in the current season, resulting in an estimated 16 lakh bags available for the subsequent year. Production for the 2025 season is anticipated to be in the range of 90–92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags.

Gujarat is expected to contribute 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is projected to produce 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production constraints remain evident, as China’s estimates have been revised down to 70–80 thousand tonnes, while the combined contributions from Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are minimal. During the period from April to September 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 14.51%, totaling 101,898.64 tonnes. Nonetheless, September exports experienced an increase both year-over-year and month-over-month. In Unjha spot, prices decreased by 0.66% to Rs 21,232.50.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 2.22% decline in open interest, bringing it to 2,778. Support stands at Rs 21,430, with potential further decline to Rs 21,370, while resistance is identified at Rs 21,560, beyond which prices could approach Rs 21,630.