Jeera experienced a decline of 0.23% yesterday, closing at Rs 19,125, as subdued export demand post-retail season exerted pressure on market sentiment. Despite the backing from the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, anticipated to enhance demand and exports in the FMCG sector, overall trade activity has remained lackluster. Abundant domestic supplies coupled with subdued international demand exerted downward pressure on prices.

Farmers are said to be in possession of approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with expectations that only 3–4 lakh bags will be traded by the conclusion of the season, resulting in an estimated carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to hold steady relative to last year, bolstered by favorable crop conditions and effective sowing practices. Nonetheless, the total national output is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decrease from the previous year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags.

Gujarat’s production is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is projected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. During the period from April to July 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 19.81%, totaling 73,026.35 tonnes, in contrast to the 91,070.02 tonnes recorded in the previous year.

From a technical perspective, the market experienced new selling pressure, evidenced by an 18.36% increase in open interest to 2,592 lots, which suggests the establishment of new short positions. Support is identified at Rs 19,070, with a potential decline below this level possibly testing Rs 18,990. Conversely, resistance is positioned between Rs 19,200 and Rs 19,250, where persistent strength might initiate short covering.