Turmeric concluded the trading session at Rs. 24,904, reflecting a decline of 1.67%. This decrease can be attributed to profit booking following recent gains, which were fuelled by a resurgence in demand, limited spot availability, and diminished selling from stockists. Carry-forward stocks have decreased to around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags in the previous season, thereby constricting the overall supply buffer. Production concerns remain significant as drought conditions continue to affect Karnataka. A collaborative survey conducted by the state horticulture and revenue departments alongside KSDMA has estimated turmeric crop losses spanning 13,446 hectares, with a valuation of Rs. 18,824 lakh, in contrast to the total state cultivation area of approximately 18,000-20,000 hectares.
Concerns regarding dry spells associated with El Niño and the availability of moisture during the early stages of crop development have contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Nonetheless, enhanced monsoon conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka, coupled with restored reservoir levels and the completion of re-sowing in certain areas of North Karnataka, have alleviated short-term agricultural worries. Despite the prevailing supply constraints, projections indicate that Indian turmeric production may rise by around 15% by 2026, bolstered by an anticipated 20% increase in cultivated area, especially in Maharashtra.
The current harvest window, coupled with improved weather conditions, may restrict additional gains for farmers selling their produce. Export data indicated that Indian turmeric shipments experienced a decline of 10% year on year, totalling 13,489 tonnes in July 2026, down from 15,071 tonnes in the same month the previous year. During the period from April to July, cumulative exports experienced a 4% increase, rising to 65,476 tonnes compared to 63,020 tonnes in the previous year. Export growth exhibited robust performance across various destinations, notably Turkey, where shipments surged by 431% to reach 3,007 tonnes; Sri Lanka, which saw an increase of 644% to 156 tonnes; and Nigeria, experiencing a remarkable rise of 983% to 69 tonnes.
Demand for Integrated Pest Management-certified turmeric from European Union buyers continues to bolster compliant grades, while stricter maximum residue limits have exerted pressure on non-compliant commercial lots. In Nizamabad, a prominent spot market, prices experienced a decline of 0.11%, settling at Rs. 22,803.30. Technically, turmeric is experiencing long unwinding, evidenced by a 5.5% decrease in open interest to 16,675 contracts, accompanied by a decline in prices of Rs. 424. Support is established at Rs. 24,510, with an additional level at Rs. 24,120. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs. 25,490, beyond which prices may approach Rs. 26,080.
