Jeera concluded at Rs. 26,485, reflecting a decline of 2.43% as profit-taking activities surfaced following a recent surge attributed to constrained nearby supplies and anticipations of enhanced export demand. Farmers had been withholding stocks in anticipation of improved prices during the October sowing window, while decreasing arrivals in Unjha and Rajasthan underscored the tightening availability of premium-quality, export-grade bold seeds. However, the actions of farmers selling to generate cash in anticipation of the upcoming season, coupled with the increase in NCDEX warehouse stocks and the cautious procurement strategies employed by industrial spice grinders, constrained the potential for price appreciation.
Production estimates suggest that Indian cumin output may decrease to 90-92 lakh bags this year, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year. Specifically, Gujarat’s production is projected to be between 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is expected to range from 48-50 lakh bags. Internationally, adverse weather has led to a reduction in China’s production estimate to 70,000-80,000 tonnes. In contrast, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are projected to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes, and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. Nevertheless, enhanced production prospects in Turkey and Syria may exert pressure on Indian export premiums. Blight outbreaks in certain regions of Gujarat have adversely impacted both crop quality and the volume of harvestable output.
Export demand continued to raise concerns, with India’s jeera exports declining by 32% year on year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, down from 13,779 tonnes in the same month the previous year. Cumulative exports during April-July experienced a decline of 27%, falling to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes in the previous year. Shipments to Singapore surged by 889% to reach 2,842 tonnes, whereas exports to Libya experienced a significant increase of 450%, totalling 341 tonnes. However, exports to China experienced a significant decline of 88%, totalling 710 tonnes, which counterbalanced increases in other markets.
European and North American buyers maintained their focus on residue-compliant, high-specification lots, despite the impact of geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East on conventional trade flows. In Unjha, a significant spot market, prices experienced a decrease of 0.06%, settling at Rs. 26,927.90. Technically, jeera is experiencing long unwinding, with open interest decreasing by 1.01% to 9,381 contracts, accompanied by a decline in prices of Rs. 660. Support is established at Rs. 25,830, with an additional level at Rs. 25,180. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs. 27,370, beyond which prices may approach Rs. 28,260.
