Turmeric concluded with a 3.99% increase, reaching Rs 25,328, bolstered by a resurgence in demand, diminished selling from stockists, and constrained spot availability as holders opted to retain stocks after previous liquidations. Concerns regarding El Nino-associated weather risks and insufficient rainfall during crucial crop development phases have further bolstered prices, especially in the context of diminishing carryforward inventories. Karnataka’s joint drought survey indicated that turmeric crop losses spanned 13,446 hectares, amounting to Rs 18,824 lakh, in comparison to a total cultivation area estimated at around 18,000 to 20,000 hectares within the state.
Industry estimates suggest that carryforward stocks have decreased to approximately 15 lakh bags, down from over 20 lakh bags in the previous season, thereby diminishing the supply buffer. However, expectations of improved production remain a limiting factor, with Indian turmeric output projected to increase by approximately 15% in 2026, bolstered by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Enhanced monsoon conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka, coupled with improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, have alleviated short-term worries regarding crop damage. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has been finalised in light of recent rainfall; however, traders exercise caution regarding the sustainability of yields under potentially favourable weather conditions.
Export demand exhibits variability, with India’s turmeric exports experiencing a 10% year-on-year decline, totalling 13,489 tonnes in July 2026, down from 15,071 tonnes in the same month the previous year. However, cumulative exports during April to July rose by 4% to 65,476 tonnes, up from 63,020 tonnes in the previous year, bolstered by robust demand from Turkey, Sri Lanka, and Nigeria. Increasing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from buyers in the European Union is bolstering compliant stocks, while more stringent residue requirements are exerting pressure on non-compliant commercial grades.
In the Nizamabad spot market, prices decreased by 0.11% to Rs 22,803.30, reflecting a subdued sentiment in the physical market despite the significant rally in futures. Turmeric is currently experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 4.38% increase in open interest, reaching 17,645 contracts, alongside a price rise of Rs 972. Support is positioned at Rs 24,510, with an additional level at Rs 23,700, whereas resistance is identified at Rs 25,820. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 26,320.
