Jeera concluded at Rs 27,145, reflecting a 1.25% increase, bolstered by the constriction of premium quality bold seed supplies, anticipations of diminished domestic production, and sustained strength in adjacent futures contracts. Farmers are strategically withholding stocks, expecting improved prices as the October sowing period approaches. Concurrently, diminishing arrivals at key trading hubs like Unjha and Rajasthan have heightened concerns regarding supply. Export demand from European and North American buyers has shown improvement, especially for residue compliant and high specification lots. However, geopolitical instability in the Middle East persists in influencing trade flows.
However, gains remained constrained as farmers sold off stocks to raise cash for the forthcoming sowing season, while increasing NCDEX warehouse inventories diminished the urgency for immediate procurement. Large spice processors maintained a cautious approach, engaging in hand-to-mouth buying while steering clear of aggressive bulk purchases due to the prevailing uncertainty in price direction. Blight outbreaks in certain regions of Gujarat have negatively impacted both crop quality and the volumes available for harvest, whereas anticipations of enhanced production in Turkey and Syria are exerting downward pressure on Indian export premiums. Domestic cumin production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags this season, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags.
Gujarat’s production is anticipated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is expected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. Adverse weather conditions have led to a reduction in China’s production estimates, now projected to be between 70,000 and 80,000 tonnes. In comparison, Syria’s output is estimated at 9,000 to 10,000 tonnes, Turkey’s at 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes, and Afghanistan’s at 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes. These production estimates indicate a potentially tighter global supply scenario, although export demand and competing sources continue to be significant factors influencing prices.
In the Unjha spot market, prices fell by 0.3% to Rs 26,254.85, reflecting a subdued immediate physical market sentiment despite the gains observed in futures. Technically, jeera is experiencing new buying activity, as open interest has risen by 3.78% to 9,477 contracts, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 335. Support is positioned at Rs 26,650, with an additional level at Rs 26,160, while resistance is identified at Rs 27,420. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 27,690.
