Jeera prices experienced a slight decline on Wednesday, with the futures contract closing down by 0.24% at Rs 24,810. This movement was influenced by favorable near-term supplies and subdued export interest, alongside sufficient existing stocks. Market participants linked the modest downturn to the conclusion of the retail season and persistent lack of engagement from international purchasers, as existing export obligations are predominantly fulfilled by current stock levels. In the Unjha spot market, prices experienced a decline of 0.57% to Rs 23,551.95, indicative of weak physical demand.

Nonetheless, the potential for downside appears constrained owing to supply-side considerations. Gujarat is experiencing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, as fields remain inadequately prepared. Jeera sowing has been recorded at 3.98 lakh hectares, reflecting a decline of 16.31% compared to the previous year. Limited arrivals at Unjha, coupled with elevated pricing for high-quality cumin, persist in providing support. Weather and logistical challenges in India and the Middle East are contributing to constrained supplies, while geopolitical disturbances in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have limited production in those regions.

The reduction of the GST to 5% is anticipated to enhance domestic support and stimulate demand in the FMCG sector. For the current season, cumin production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to account for approximately 90 to 95 lakh bags of this total.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 1.64% decrease in open interest coupled with a Rs 60 drop in prices. Support is identified at Rs 24,230; a decline beneath this level could challenge Rs 23,650. Resistance is established at Rs 25,260, with potential for further advancement towards Rs 25,710 contingent upon a breach of this level.