Jeera prices increased by 1.33% to close at Rs 20,150, driven by short covering after recent declines caused by weak export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Market participants observed that international purchasers are predominantly disengaged, whereas ample domestic supplies and adequate existing inventories have maintained a generally muted demand environment. Nonetheless, the downside was constrained as diminished arrivals during the Diwali holidays, coupled with opportunistic buying at reduced levels, offered support to prices.

The recent reduction in the GST rate to 5% is anticipated to enhance FMCG exports and stimulate domestic demand, thereby contributing a favorable sentiment to the market. At the farm level, producers are retaining approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh anticipated to be traded prior to the season’s conclusion, resulting in a significant carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags.

Current season production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, primarily attributed to decreased sowing activities. Gujarat is anticipated to yield between 42 and 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce between 48 and 50 lakh bags. On the global front, adverse weather conditions have reduced cumin production in China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan; however, this situation has not yet resulted in significant export demand for Indian jeera.

During the period from April to August 2025, exports experienced a decline of 17.02% year-on-year, totaling 85,977 tonnes, notwithstanding a slight increase of 3.24% in shipments for August. The market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 30.42% decline in open interest, which now stands at 1,002. Support is established at Rs 19,980 and Rs 19,800, whereas resistance is noted at the levels of Rs 20,280 and Rs 20,400.