Jeera yesterday settled nearly unchanged, declining by 0.03% to Rs 18,940 as subdued domestic and export demand persisted, exerting pressure on prices following the retail season. The decrease was primarily ascribed to subdued international demand and ample availability in the local market, as foreign purchasers largely refrained from participation.

Pressure was also observed as sufficient stocks are satisfying current demand, while farmers retain approximately 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh are anticipated to be traded by the season’s conclusion, resulting in an estimated carry-forward of 16 lakh bags. On the production side, the prevailing crop conditions and sowing practices are favorable, suggesting an output comparable to that of the previous year. India’s cumin production for the current season is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. In terms of state contributions, Gujarat is anticipated to yield between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan is projected to produce between 48 and 50 lakh bags.

Globally, adverse weather has curtailed production in competing producers such as China, where estimates have been adjusted downward to 70,000–80,000 tons, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are anticipated to yield 9–12,000 tons each. During the period from April to July 2025, exports experienced a decline of 19.81% year-on-year, totaling 73,026 tonnes. Shipments in July fell by 20.83% relative to the previous year and were 15.58% lower than those in June, highlighting a lack of robust overseas demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 1.76% decline in open interest, which now stands at 3,189. Prices decreased by Rs 5, with immediate support identified at Rs 18,890; a breach below this level may test Rs 18,820. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 19,020, and a breach beyond this level could propel prices towards Rs 19,080.