Turmeric experienced a slight decline of -0.25% yesterday, settling at Rs 12,076. This movement can be attributed to an expansion in cultivated area, bolstered by the advantageous precipitation observed throughout the ongoing sowing season. Nonetheless, the potential negative impact was somewhat mitigated as recent substantial precipitation, especially in Nanded, detrimentally influenced the existing turmeric cultivation, resulting in damage to approximately 15% of the cultivated area.

The Indian Meteorological Department’s projection indicating a likelihood of normal to subpar precipitation levels in certain regions of South India for the month of September has exacerbated apprehensions among turmeric cultivators. The inventory of agricultural commodities possessed by farmers in Warangal has reached a critically low level, as there have been no new shipments in the last 48 hours. This scarcity is contributing to a stabilization in market prices, driven by diminished supply and a prudent approach to selling among stakeholders. In the realm of production dynamics, the prevailing arid climatic conditions are conducive to prompt sowing activities. Initial projections suggest a prospective increase in cultivated acreage ranging from 15% to 20%, as the profitability of alternative crops appears to be relatively diminished.

In the 2024-25 agricultural season, the area dedicated to turmeric cultivation expanded to 3.30 lakh hectares, reflecting a notable 10% growth compared to the preceding year. At Duggirala market, the influx of fresh crop arrivals is generating robust buyer engagement, as the newly available produce is persistently commanding elevated prices attributable to its exceptional quality, thereby counteracting the usual deceleration typically observed at the conclusion of the season. During the period spanning April to June 2025, there was a notable increase in turmeric exports, which ascended by 3.12%, culminating in a total of 47,949.56 tonnes when juxtaposed with the corresponding timeframe of the previous year. Nevertheless, the export figures for June experienced a decline of 7.93% on a year-over-year basis, alongside a more pronounced contraction of 28.21% when juxtaposed with the preceding month of May 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market is currently experiencing a phase of prolonged liquidation, evidenced by a reduction in open interest of -0.48%, bringing the total to 16,585. Concurrently, there has been a decline in prices, specifically a decrease of Rs -30. The immediate support threshold is positioned at Rs 12,024, beneath which a potential examination of Rs 11,974 may ensue. The threshold of resistance appears to be positioned at Rs 12,152, with a potential upward movement beyond this level aiming for a target of Rs 12,230.