Jeera experienced a decline of -0.54% yesterday, settling at Rs 19,480. This downturn can be attributed to subdued domestic and export demand, a consequence of the retail season’s conclusion. Nonetheless, the potential drawbacks were mitigated, as the GST council’s resolution to reduce the GST rate to 5% serves as a catalyst for enhancing FMCG exports and stimulating domestic consumption. The decline was primarily ascribed to a lackluster engagement from international purchasers coupled with an ample supply of domestic inventories.

Agricultural producers currently possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin; however, projections indicate that merely 3 to 4 lakh bags are anticipated to be transacted by the conclusion of the season. This scenario will result in a residual inventory of around 16 lakh bags carried forward into subsequent periods.

Geopolitical disturbances in principal jeera-producing nations, including Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, have resulted in a contraction of their supply chains. Concurrently, subdued international demand emanating from India is adversely impacting market sentiment. The projection for cumin production in China has been adjusted downward to a range of 70 to 80 thousand tons, attributable to unfavorable meteorological conditions. During the period spanning April to June 2025, the export volume of jeera experienced a significant contraction of -19.57%, declining to 59,247.76 tonnes from the previous year’s figure of 73,666.09 tonnes for the corresponding timeframe. In June, there was a notable year-on-year increase in exports, registering a growth of 10.26%. However, when juxtaposed with the preceding month of May 2025, a significant decline of -29.67% was observed.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing a new wave of selling pressure, as evidenced by a 4.51% increase in open interest, which has reached a total of 3,612. Concurrently, prices have declined by Rs 105. Current support levels are identified at Rs 19,400, with the potential for a subsequent examination of Rs 19,310 should the downward trajectory persist. The threshold for resistance appears to be positioned at Rs 19,630, and a successful breach of this level may catalyze an upward trajectory, propelling prices toward the Rs 19,770 mark.