The recent dips in Agri markets was mainly due to improved rains in North-West and Central India last week. However, the downtrend seems temporary as the festive season demand and pick up in exports are expected to support prices this week. Overall, the sentiment remains firm for the Agri markets with an expected recovery in prices this week for the entire sector.
Refined Soybean Oil
Edible oils markets posted some recovery amid short-covering ahead of the weekend. Negative cues have emerged from the latest USDA report, which gave an upward revision in global production as well as end stock of soybean for the current year versus 2019-2020. Therefore, Soya oil and CPO shall face difficulty in moving upwards this week. The US season-average soybean price for 2020/21 is forecasted at $8.35 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month, in the latest demand supply report. The soybean meal price is forecasted at $290 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecasted at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent.
Medium-term fundamentals being positive, we expect a moderate pull-back in between. Stable exports demand for Malaysian palm oil from India and lower production outlook for this year will be preventing chances of any long-lasting downside movement this month. The oilseed sector has revived in recent months, mainly because of the increasing importance of the demand for food raw materials during the lockdown situation. Government’s measures to boost the agricultural economy have helped edible oils and edible oilseeds prices to jump significantly post March 2020. Retail demand remains stable presently.
The USDA has raised global 2020-21 soybean trade by 3.9 million tonne, with higher export estimates for Brazil, Argentina and the US. Higher soybean import demand is expected from China, Thailand, Argentina, Egypt, and India, as per this month’s demand and supply report of the US Department of Agriculture. The USDA also increased its global ending stocks forecast by 3,00,000 mt to 95.4 million, with higher global soybean production mostly offset by higher use in 2020-21, mainly in China.
Import demand has increased in the last few months because of lowering inventories last month and remains strong even now as the supplies are constantly getting absorbed, because of frequent purchases from retailers and wholesalers.
As per short term charts, the price trend has weakened for next 8-10 sessions at least. Since the broader view is bullish, there will be regular pull-back from lower support levels since. Soya oil September contract has immediate resistance at Rs 890-895 per 10 kg and very strong support at Rs 845-850 per 10 kg levels. Expect strong recovery by end of the week.