Jeera settled lower by 1.49% at Rs 25,520 due to profit booking following recent gains. However, tightness in nearby supplies and concerns over lower production continued to provide underlying support. The futures curve suggested ongoing near-term supply constraints, while diminishing availability of premium-quality bold seeds and declining arrivals in key markets like Unjha and Rajasthan bolstered prices. Farmers have been retaining stocks in expectation of improved prices during the October sowing period. However, the potential for upward movement remained constrained as farmers sold off stocks to raise funds for the forthcoming season, warehouse inventories saw an uptick, and industrial spice processors engaged in minimal purchasing practices.
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has exerted pressure on logistics and demand from conventional buyers, while enhanced production prospects in Turkey and Syria have applied downward pressure on Indian export premiums. Estimates suggest that India’s cumin production could decrease to 90-92 lakh bags this year, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year. The output from Gujarat is anticipated to be between 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s production is expected to range from 48-50 lakh bags. Adverse weather has reportedly diminished China’s production outlook to 70,000-80,000 tonnes. In contrast, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are anticipated to produce approximately 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes, and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively.
India’s jeera exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 19.7%, totalling 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, down from 14,532 tonnes in the same month the previous year. Cumulative exports during April-August decreased to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes, while annual exports for September 2025-August 2026 experienced a decline of 17.4%, totalling 174,479 tonnes. In August, there was an uptick in shipments to the United States, Singapore, and Mexico; however, exports to the United Arab Emirates and Bangladesh experienced a significant decline. In Unjha, a significant spot market, prices decreased by 0.05% to Rs 25,924.20.
Technically, the market is experiencing a long unwinding phase, evidenced by a 4.1% decrease in open interest to 8,493 contracts, accompanied by a decline in prices of Rs 385. Jeera exhibits support levels at Rs 25,300 and subsequently at Rs 25,080, with resistance identified at Rs 25,890. A sustained move above Rs 25,890 could propel prices toward Rs 26,260, while a breach below Rs 25,300 may extend the downward trend toward Rs 25,080.
